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Résumé (français)

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Résumé (anglais)

This paper examines the educational aspirations of 15-year-old Canadian youth, using data from cycle 1 of the Youth in Transition Survey (YITS) and the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA). It profiles the range of youth?s educational aspirations, examining key influences on these plans. Identifying these influences constitutes the main research focus of this analysis. It also sets the stage for long term analyses of the life course trajectories of Canadian youth as additional phases of the YITS are undertaken. The YITS/PISA data includes information from 29,687 youth born in 1984, attending a school in one of the ten Canadian provinces in the year 2000. A two-stage sampling design was used, of schools and students within schools. Surveys were also obtained from a parent and from the school, but only the youth data were available for this analysis. Analyses were conducted using the statistical programs WESVAR and SPSS. Profiles of the factors affecting youth plans were conducted using bivariate analyses (cross-tabulations, comparison of means, correlations); multivariate ordinary least squares regression helped identify the direct effects of the variables which, at the bivariate level, had been found to influence youth plans. The major findings show that Canadian youth continue to aim high. Almost all want to go beyond high school, and most want to attend university. Gender has an effect on educational plans: girls perform better in school and have higher educational aspirations. While the same variables affect the plans of males and females, the magnitude of effects sometimes differs. Parental socio-economic status affects the youth plans, but has less of an impact than parental encouragement. There are some community size differences, with youth attending schools in smaller communities having lower aspirations, particularly being less likely to plan to attend a university. Francophones in Quebec have a different pattern of educational aspirations than other youth. Academic performance, and program of study have pronounced effects on youth plans, as does academic effort. Other experiences, in and out of school, have less of an effect, including: participation in extracurricular activities, attachment to school, academic self-confidence, and bending or breaking rules in the home or the school. Those who frequently use Information Technology for educational purposes have higher aspirations, net of other effects. The multivariate analyses allow a separation of direct and indirect effects on these educational plans. Policy issues raised by the analysis include an emphasis on the importance of encouraging more diversity in youth?s educational paths, perhaps with more pro-active counselling in the schools. The youth?s current plans are very optimistic and cannot be achieved without a dramatic increase in the capacity of universities. However, some youth continue to aim low. Alternative sources of encouragement might be explored for those who lack this incentive at home. Suggestions are made as to how to modify the lower attachment of males to school. Incorporating work experience into school programs, not just for those who excel academically, may have beneficial effects, particularly for young men. The area where young women need encouragement is in programs that lead to occupations in the skilled trades. Regional differences in educational plans suggest the need to explore alternate forms of delivery of educational programs.