Aperçu

Résumé (français)

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Résumé (anglais)

The paper presents a new dynamic micro simulation model which aims at forecasting Quebec’s demographic evolution and its consequences on various types of incomes and on public finances. The model allows to analyse the effects of the main demographical changes (population aging, increasing education levels and immigration) on earnings, pension incomes, Old Age Security (OAS), Guarantied Income Supplement (GIS), Quebec Pension Plan (QPP), income tax, etc. The results suggest that the increasing level of Quebecers’ education will significantly increase their earnings and pension incomes and will contribute to a slight increase in mean retirement age. Education and immigration effects will thus mitigate the effect of population aging on public finances. It is also found that women’s QPP pensions will greatly increase due to their increasing participation rate in the labour force, while GIS eligibility will be reduced because of increasing market incomes.