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Résumé (français)

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Résumé (anglais)

This paper presents the results of literacy proficiency projections using a microsimulation model that simultaneously projects future demographic, ethnocultural, and socioeconomic characteristics of the Canadian population. Factors linked with literacy skills of the working-age population are analyzed for both native- and foreign-born Canadians. The projection results show that literacy skills are likely to slightly decline between 2011 and 2061, as the positive effects of increasing education are canceled out by the important skill gap between native- and foreign-born Canadians. Results of the simulation suggest that plausible changes to immigrant selection policies could prevent against the associated literacy skill decline among the Canadian working-age population.