Local labor markets and theft: New evidence from Canada

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Résumé (français)

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Résumé (anglais)

This paper provides the first causal evidence of the effect of labor market opportunities on theft crimes in Canada. Synthetic panel data are constructed by combining the Labour Force Survey with the complete Uniform Crime Reports microdata from 2007-2011. Low-skill unemployment rates and corresponding theft rates are measured for age and city-specific groups of young males. Impacts are identified using an instrumental variables approach that captures the exposure of low-skill employment to exogenous demand for exports to the US. Estimates of the elasticity of theft with respect to low-skill unemployment rates are between 0.35-0.39, slightly lower than estimates for the US aggregate data.