Forecasting adult weight status trends in Canada with longitudinal population-based data

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Résumé (français)

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Résumé (anglais)

The prevalence of obesity in Canada and other Western countries has increased dramatically over the last 30 years. This project modelled future prevalence of weight status trends under a Markov framework by estimating transition probabilities between categorical weight states. A microsimulation was developed to track individual weight status histories through discrete-time updates. Model and simulation parameters were derived from a nationally representative longitudinal survey which followed 17,000 participants over a 20 year period. A series of weight prevention and intervention strategies were simulated to determine their potential impact on weight status trends and population health utility.